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Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (XERS)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record quarter: Total revenue $74.4M (+37% YoY) on net product revenue $74.1M (+40% YoY), led by Recorlev $37.0M (+109% YoY); Gvoke $25.2M (+10% YoY); Keveyis $11.9M (-2% YoY) . Gross margin reached ~85% (vs ~82% in Q2), and Xeris posted its first quarterly net income ($0.6M) .
  • Guidance: FY25 total revenue guidance raised on the low end to $285–$290M (from $280–$290M); earlier in the year raised from $260–$275M (Q2) and tightened from $255–$275M (Q1) .
  • Versus consensus (S&P Global): Revenue slight beat ($74.38M vs $74.19M*), EPS in-line ($0.00 vs ~$0.00*), but EBITDA missed ($9.78M vs $12.55M*). Management flagged higher SG&A/R&D beginning in Q4 to fund Recorlev expansion (reps onboard in January) and XP‑8121 Phase 3 prep, while reiterating positive adjusted EBITDA commitment * . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Stock-moving narrative: Sustained Recorlev demand, 85% gross margin, first net income, and guidance raise are positives; near‑term opex step‑up and EBITDA miss may temper enthusiasm until Q4 execution and 2026 pipeline milestones (XP‑8121 Phase 3 start in H2’26) are clearer .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Recorlev momentum: Revenue $37.0M (+109% YoY) with ~108% growth in average patients; management positioning Recorlev for long-term scale and has called it a potential “billion‑dollar product” .
    • Margin and profitability: Gross margin ~85% (up vs Q2’s ~82%) and first quarterly net income ($0.6M) underscore operating leverage and mix benefits .
    • Guidance raised: FY25 total revenue guidance lifted to $285–$290M, reflecting confidence in Q4 momentum and YTD execution . CEO: “We delivered another record‑breaking quarter… updating our 2025 total revenue guidance to $285–$290 million” .

  • What Went Wrong

    • EBITDA vs Street: Adjusted EBITDA of $17.4M grew YoY but trailed consensus EBITDA ($9.78M actual EBITDA vs $12.55M* est; consensus and company metric definitions may differ), while adjusted EBITDA was $17.4M *. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
    • Opex trajectory: SG&A (+3% YoY) and R&D (+27% YoY) rose in Q3, with further increases expected starting Q4 to fund commercialization and XP‑8121; management warned EPS variability ahead .
    • Keveyis softness YoY: Revenue -2% YoY in Q3 and -9% YTD, reflecting pricing pressure (partially offset by volume) .

Financial Results

Consolidated Financials and Margins (YoY and Seq)

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenue ($M)$54.3 $71.5 $74.4
Net Income (Loss) ($M)$(15.7) $(1.9) $0.6
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.11) $(0.01) $0.00
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$(2.7) $12.5 $17.4
Gross Margin (%)—~82% ~85%
COGS ($M)$13.6 $11.9 $11.0
R&D ($M)$5.9 $8.1 $7.5
SG&A ($M)$45.0 $44.4 $46.5

By-Product Revenue

Product ($M)Q3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Recorlev$17.7 $25.5 $31.4 $37.0
Gvoke$22.9 $20.8 $23.5 $25.2
Keveyis$12.2 $11.4 $11.5 $11.9
Product Revenue, net$52.9 $57.8 $67.7 $74.1
Royalty/Contract/Other$1.4 $2.3 $3.8 $0.3
Total Revenue$54.3 $60.1 $71.5 $74.4

Versus Consensus and Forward Look (S&P Global)

MetricQ3 2025 ActualQ3 2025 ConsensusVs. ConsensusQ4 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($)$74,380,000 $74,191,670*Beat$81,383,330*
Primary EPS ($)$0.00 $0.00333*In-line$0.02167*
EBITDA ($)$9,780,000 $12,550,000*Miss$18,100,000*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total RevenueFY2025$280–$290M (Q2 raise from $260–$275M) $285–$290M Raised low end
Gross MarginFY2025Modest improvement vs 2024 (reiterated in Q2) ~85% in Q3; no numeric FY guide in Q3 commentary Trend favorable
SG&AFY2025–Q4 onwardLow-to-mid-teens YoY increase (Q2) Increase starting Q4 to support Recorlev expansion Upward bias maintained
R&DFY2025–2026Modest increase (Q1/Q2 context) Increase starting Q4; ramp through 2026/2027 for XP‑8121 Upward/ramping
Adjusted EBITDAFY2025+Remain positive (Q1/Q2) Remain positive despite investments (Q3) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025, Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Recorlev growth/scaleRecorlev +141% YoY (Q1); salesforce expansion driving growth $37.0M (+109% YoY); 108% patient growth; next rep expansion in January Accelerating
Gross margin trajectory~85% (Q1) ~82% (Q2) due to non-routine expense ~85% in Q3 on mix
SG&A/R&D outlookModest increases (Q1) Low-to-mid-teens YoY opex increase (Q2) Step-up beginning Q4 for Recorlev & XP‑8121
Gvoke market and GTN8% Rx growth; market growth leadership (Q1) Favorable gross-to-net benefits (Q2) +10% YoY revenue in Q3
Keveyis durabilitySlightly up seq; maintain stable base (Q1) ~$11.5M Q2; durable franchise ~$11.9M; durable with new starts
Competitive dynamicsGvoke: limited competitive impact (Q1) Recorlev: more voices enlarge market (Q2) Relacorilant expected to expand market; neutral-to-positive framing
Tariffs/macroNo material tariff impact expected (Q1) ——
XP‑8121 timelineJune Analyst Day preview (Q1) Raising opex; pivotal prep (Q2) Phase 3 start H2’26; device/manufacturing gating steps underway

Management Commentary

  • CEO (John Shannon): “We delivered another record‑breaking quarter… Total product revenue grew 40% year‑over‑year… Recorlev led the way, with revenue growing 109% to $37 million… we are updating our 2025 total revenue guidance to $285–$290 million” .
  • CFO (Steve Pieper): “In the third quarter, we generated significant positive cash flow as well as net income for the first time… gross margin [grew] to 85%… Adjusted EBITDA… $17.4 million… we do expect some variability in quarterly EPS… we remain committed to maintaining positive adjusted EBITDA” .
  • On 2026 setup: “We are building for the future… to initiate the XP‑8121 phase three clinical study next year [H2’26]” .
  • On competition: “Another player… talking about screening, detection… is a good thing… Relacorilant will help the market” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Recorlev salesforce productivity and expansion: Prior expansion now at optimal productivity; next cohort onboard in January with a few quarters to ramp .
  • Competitive dynamics: No unusual Q3 patient sourcing; majority new‑to‑therapy; Relacorilant viewed as market-expanding rather than disruptive .
  • Seasonality and prescriber momentum: Modest deductible impact; momentum across new and repeat prescribers .
  • Opex cadence: SG&A step-up in Q4 with rep hires; XP‑8121 R&D ramps through H2’26–2027; adjusted EBITDA to remain positive .
  • XP‑8121 gating steps: Manufacturing scale-up and device verification to enable broad dosing; start Phase 3 when ready with commercial presentation .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $74.38M vs $74.19M* (beat), EPS $0.00 vs ~$0.00* (in-line), EBITDA $9.78M vs $12.55M* (miss). Q4 2025 consensus: Revenue $81.38M*, EPS ~$0.022*, EBITDA $18.10M* *. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Implications: Street likely raises Recorlev and total revenue run‑rate given sustained product momentum and guidance raise, but may trim near‑term EBITDA on higher opex investments telegraphed for Q4 and 2026 .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Recorlev remains the growth engine with expanding patient base and prescriber breadth; management is investing to capture a large, growing market and reiterated a path to a potential billion‑dollar brand over time .
  • Quality of growth improving: ~85% gross margin and first-ever quarterly net income indicate operating leverage from mix and scale .
  • FY25 outlook strengthened: Guidance raised to $285–$290M with visible Q4 momentum; watch execution on the January sales expansion and Q4 opex step‑up .
  • Near-term modeling: Expect higher SG&A/R&D from Q4 onward (Reps + XP‑8121 prep) but continued positive adjusted EBITDA; EBITDA consensus may need recalibration .
  • Competitive backdrop constructive: Relacorilant approval by a competitor is framed as market-expanding for screening/diagnosis, which could lift category awareness .
  • Pipeline catalyst: XP‑8121 Phase 3 initiation targeted for H2’26; manufacturing/device readiness are gating steps—follow disclosures through 2026 .
  • Balance sheet/scale: Cash $91.6M as of Sep 30, 2025, with receivables and inventory growth consistent with scaling operations; watch working capital and leverage as growth accelerates .

Appendix: Source Cross-References

  • Q3 2025 8‑K/Press Release (financials, guidance, GAAP/Non‑GAAP reconciliations, balance sheet) .
  • Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript (strategy, margin commentary, opex outlook, Q&A) (duplicate transcripts [2:] [3:] consistent).
  • Q2 2025 Press Release and Call (prior quarter comps, guidance history, margin) .
  • Q1 2025 Press Release and Call (two quarters back comps, initial FY guide, margin) .
  • Consensus (S&P Global) for Q3 actuals vs estimates and Q4 outlook (Revenue, EPS, EBITDA, TP) [GetEstimates]*. Values retrieved from S&P Global.